Bankruptcy Risk Analysis of PT Garuda Indonesia Tbk Using the Altman Z-Score Model for the Period 2015-2024
Keywords:
Bankruptcy, Financial Distress, Altman Z-ScoreAbstract
This study aims to analyze the financial ratios that are components of the Altman Z-Score model, calculate the Altman Z-Score value, and evaluate the potential bankruptcy risk of PT Garuda Indonesia (Persero) Tbk for the period 2015–2024. The study was conducted to determine the company's financial health as a form of early detection of the possibility of financial distress and the risk of corporate bankruptcy. The research method used is descriptive research with a quantitative approach. The data used are secondary data in the form of the annual financial report of PT Garuda Indonesia (Persero) Tbk for the period 2015–2024 obtained from the company's official reports and the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The analysis technique is carried out by calculating the financial ratios that are components of the Altman Z-Score, namely Working Capital to Total Assets (X1), Retained Earnings to Total Assets (X2), Earnings Before Interest and Taxes (EBIT) to Total Assets (X3), Market Value of Equity to Total Liabilities (X4), and Sales to Total Assets (X5). Furthermore, the Z-Score value is calculated and classified into healthy, gray zone, or distress categories. The results of the study indicate that most of PT Garuda Indonesia's financial ratios are in an unhealthy condition. The X1 and X2 ratios consistently show negative values, indicating weak liquidity and prolonged accumulation of losses. The Altman Z-Score calculation results show that during the 2015–2024 period, the company was consistently in the distress zone or at risk of bankruptcy. The Z-Score value experienced a significant decline during the 2020–2021 pandemic, with the lowest value reaching -3.984 in 2021. Despite improvements after restructuring in 2022–2024, the company's financial condition still does not demonstrate the characteristics of a healthy company. Thus, PT Garuda Indonesia still needs to strengthen its liquidity, profitability, and capital structure to achieve long-term business sustainability.
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